Modelling, projecting and tracking emissions reduction pathways in light of the second Global Stocktake by 2028

The IPCC 6th Assessment Report emphasizes the urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions this decade to keep global warming within 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels. This was highlighted by the first Global Stocktake (GST) in 2023, which emphasised that limiting global warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot requires deep, rapid and sustained reductions in emissions of 43% reduction in emissions by 2030 and 60% by 2035 compared to 2019 levels, aiming for net zero CO2 emissions by 2050 and that mitigation efforts embedded within the wider development context can increase the pace, depth and breadth of emissions reductions. As we reach the midpoint of this critical decade for climate action, substantial efforts are required to meet the Paris Agreement goals.

The period for this project will see the submission of new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for 2035 by parties to the Paris agreement, the IPCC’s 7th Assessment report, and the second Global Stocktake in 2028. The second GST will also assess how national action is closing the ambition and implementation gap towards limiting warming to 1.5 degrees. This project aims to enhance the capacity of emerging economies to model GHG emissions and pathways, to improve tracking of progress towards domestic and global targets and to support the analysis and development of domestic targets, policies and measures to cut net emissions.

By supporting experts and young professionals in developing countries and emerging economies it will enhance national capacity for modelling, reporting, and transparency. This activity will facilitate knowledge exchange and best-practices between experts from the EU and other emerging, and developing countries and promote the drafting and publishing of relevant papers and reports to inform policy makers, and contributions to multi-lateral or international events including for climate negotiations and the second global stocktake. The project will be organised in a lean and efficient manner, allowing for flexibility in both the participation of stakeholders as well the selection of topics to be covered as to respond to climate policy developments as the project progresses.

The project should have the capacity to respond to evolving demands and while being adaptive, propose regions or countries to engage with, where a high impact can be achieved with local partners. Structured around 4-6 in-person workshops over four years, 3-4 workshops will focus on modeling topics and 2-3 on MRV-related topics, with some addressing both.Each workshop will concentrate on a key climate action topic, bringing together scientists and stakeholders to produce scientific papers, reports, or follow-up projects to improve data quality and mitigation models. The project will support collaboration among stakeholders, enabling capacity building and publishing outputs It will also create opportunities for young professionals in climate policy modeling and transparency through dedicated summer schools and seminars during the workshops.

By building capacity, networks, and collaborations, participants will enhance their work through joint development. The selected tenderer has the capacity to deliver these tasks, both logistically and by steering the content development. Globally scoped, the project will engage experts in key countries for climate action and ensure workshops are held in various regions to maximize participation, especially where capacity development is most needed.

The project will support the EU’s climate diplomacy.